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Tuesday, 17 May 2016

The pros and cons of Raghuram Rajan - Should he be sacked? - An Ethmos perspective

There is a debate going on around the country regarding the replacement of Raghuram Rajan with our Terminator Subramaniam Swamy writing to the FM regarding his termination of service.  We are no appointment experts, however, we would just like to highlight the achievements and failures of our celebrity RBI governor.  So, being good old optimistic fellows, we would go for the positive ones first:-






1.  Raghuram Rajan tried his level best to reduce inflation by regulating the money flow in the banking system through the rate of interests offered by RBI to the banks, namely repo, base, and reverse repo rates.  If today you are getting your home, car, education, and business loans at lower rate of interests, then he is the man behind it, at least to a very large extent.
2.  He is a non-partisan thorough professional who does not have any political inclinations.  He was appointed by the then UPA government but this was one decision where we won't question the previous government unlike the myriad of scams that it committed since RR was a highly respected personality in the field of finance.
3.  He is the man behind the opening of small payment banks in our country through which you can do money transfer from service providers like Airtel, Vodafone, etc.  He pioneered these concepts in our country which were already in use in foreign countries since a long time.

Now let's be a little bad and find his shortcomings because after all he is just a mere mortal.

1.  Some of the policies of RBI like discarding the old-fashioned (but well meaning and very useful) systems in the banking sector like disposing of confidential bank reports while sanctioning loans and heavy reliance on credit information companies (CICs) for getting the track record of the borrower has done more damage than good.  All this was done in the name of "better customer service" in order to avoid nuisance to genuine loan seekers but this has led to unscrupulous elements entering into the credit system of the banking sector since the CICs are no gospels of track record of any person and nothing beats the personal interaction and inspection of human banking official while sanctioning of loans.  Moreover, he did a blanket implementation of this scheme unknowing of the fact that in the rural heartland of Bharat, the CICs don't have much penetration and many defaulters are not captured in their database.  This is one of the reasons for the high NPA today in our banking system and the subsequent coming of loss of major banks.
2.  In the hurry to decrease inflation by decreasing rate of interests, RR introduced a new system of calculating rate of interest with effect from 1st April 2016 called the Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate or the MCLR.  (Here is an article explaining the nuances of the same).  This system of calculating rate of interest, as per our view, will result in a huge dent in the profitability of the banks since the margins kept by the banks for providing loans are really thin and it becomes really difficult to even cover up operational costs of the banks.
3.  The third and last point is that he is not a "field" man and rather a "board room" man.  We do agree that he is a knowledgeable man (who is even rumored to be the next Noble prize winner for Economics in the near future), but in order to control the Bharatiya banking industry what is required is the ground level knowledge, the "nukkad ki baat" kind of acumen in dealing with credit decisions, and even bigger decisions.  A small error that he committed was to equate our semi-baked urban economy to the developed urban economies of the west without considering the fact that nearly 60% of our economy comes from the semi-urban and rural areas.  Just forcing banks to open branches in such areas will not help unless background changes in recovery laws (of course, it is not fully in his hands) is brought forth and banking policies aligned with the local economies.  A small example is the scale of finance based financing of agriculture sector which has led to over-financing for some farmers and gross under-financing for some.  Not to mention, the tonnes of restructured agriculture and business loans are going to be dead bodies in the cup-board which will be falling off the shelf anytime soon.

So our take - if at all you retain RR, tell him take a Bharat bhraman and understand our local culture and economy for framing new policies and tell RR to make his junior officers also do the same.  It won't hurt if RBI officials are also given a mandatory rural/semi-urban assignments for understanding our country in a better fashion.  And in case you terminate his services, make sure you find another man with a heart of gold like him.

Happy Ethmos to All!

Thursday, 12 May 2016

The Owasis and Presstitutes of Bharat are very right - Bharat Sarakar can DO NOTHING regarding ANYTHING - An Ethmos view

Recently a supposed 29-year-old (really really old for a student!) scholar of JNU, Shri. Shri. Kanhayya Kumar, was arrested on charges of sedition (warring against the state) by the Government for giving and supporting hate speeches inside the JNU campus.  Thanks to our great bulky constitution, he got released on bail without much problem by giving a surety and fake assurance which he has broken multiple times (and nobody cares now anyways) since his release.  And the best part - nothing happened.

Way back in 2012, another political person from the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh, Mr. Akbaruddin Owaisi, made an acerbic venomous speech against the government, the Hindus (of course, that is not at all an issue since we are a "sickular" country where killing, abusing, raping, and harassing the peace-loving majority population is taken for granted and there are intellectuals, unfortunately Hindus, who support them also) - and he was also arrested on the same charges and granted bail by giving a surety and a bond of a mere Rs. 10,000/-.  Bingo! You are free to hate, kill, incite to kill, murder, rape, and do whatever you want since Bharat is a Jamuriat (democracy and that too, a secular one - whoa!).  May be we are the only country in the world where we have face more enemies from the inside rather than outside and being Hindus ourselves, we dread the day when there will be mass murdering or extermination of our race and culture as has been happening over the past more than 2000 years.

We hope you all would have heard about the bird called Dodo which was found in abundance in the islands of Mauritius once before it became extinct.  Any ideas, why it got extinct?  It got extinct because of its jolly and innocent trustworthy friendly nature.  When humans inhabited the islands, the Dodo was so friendly to the new found "human friends" that it never tried to escape even when it was captured and killed for food by the humans.  The killings continued till the Dodo became an extinct animal and there are none left in the world as of now.  The death of Dodos gave new metaphors in the Oxford dictionary namely "as dead as a Dodo" and "as dumb as a Dodo".  We seriously fear that one day the word "Hindu" may be substituted by "Dodo."

We feel proud of being a boiling pot of a mixture of cultures and religions.  And that is indeed a matter of pride that so many cultures, creeds, and religions co-exist in this small portion of land that we call Bharat and that the actual natives of this land never ever invaded or attacked anybody for the purpose of destroying "their" religion and "propagating" ours.  Reason - Hinduism is not a religion but a way of life which is why it is called the Sanatan Dharama or the eternal truth.

Coming back to our topic, we very deplorably frighteningly say that the likes of Owaisis, Zaid Hamids, Umar Khalids, and Kanhayya Kumars are and WILL flourish in our land and one day they MIGHT succeed in destroying us.  We know that the prediction that we are making is very dark and hopeless but then keeping the eyes closed and thinking that it is night is foolishness.  Better be true to ourselves and accept the challenge rather than stay in an Utopian world where we think everything as hunky dory.

The recent killings of a HINDU DELHI DOCTOR, Shri. Pankaj Narang (we are sure you would have forgotten him by now!) is also a straw in the hay in the grand scheme of things that are happening around in the country.  The indications are very subtle and not noticeable unless a responsible media does its job with sincerity which is not at all happening in our country.  Here the media houses are owned or have some or the other allegiance to the "first family" of our country and never ever report anything that hampers the vote banks of the party supported by this family.  The most negative yet important of the news is reported in a manner that makes it neutral and unassuming in importance for the general public.  And any news, even a "no-news item" like the comparison of ATTAPADI DISTRICT in Kerala to Somalia by our Prime Minister (which was indeed an apt comparison since the HDI figures are actually similar to Somalia, which has been reported multiple times much much before Modi's speech) will be reported in such a scandalizing venomous hoodwinking manner that people are convinced to believe that Modi insulted "Kerala" by comparing it Somalia.

May be this is the reason why today's press has lost its credibility and are correctly referred to as "presstitutes" in the social media circle.  But then again what can WE do?  As of now nothing more than shouting at them on the internet like we are doing right now.  But what the government can do?  If it is willing to do, then it should enact the Press Reporting, Regulation, and Control Act which we will highlight in our forthcoming articles.

Till then,

Happy Ethmos to All

MCLR - Marginal Cost of Funds Lending Rate by RBI - An Ethmos perspective



RBI [ Bhartiya Reserve Bank]  has implemented MCLR based rate since April 2016, Mr. Superman was bit confused whether this new rate will help him in having reduced EMI [ Equated monthly installments ] towards his existing liabilities. So he met his mentor Mr. Nobody to unravel some mysteries related to MCLR so that it will help a sada bhartiya [ pun intended as it will be really difficult to use the phrase “ AAM  ADAMI” as it might hurt His Highness Shri. Khujliwal ]. Mr . Nobody pushed him to his limits to find about MCLR.


Research : Marginal cost of Funds based lending rate [MCLR]

Marginal Cost of Funds [ Nidhi Ki Simant Lagat ] as per the terminology the rate of interest should be based on the actual cost funds borne by the financial institutions [ SCBs Scheduled commercial banks ]

As per RBI

MCLR comprises of
1. Marginal Cost of funds
2. Negative carry on account of CRR
3. Operating costs
4. Tenor Premium

1. Marginal cost of funds

The basic banking is to accept the deposits from the customer and lend it to customer. FIs make use of this spread to make profit. Marginal cost comprises of Marginal cost of borrowings and Return on net worth.

1.a Whats is the marginal cost ?

The marginal cost is the cost of funds available to the institutions from the customer/ Public. Customers invest in banks in the form of Fixed deposits, Savings and Current accounts[ CASA] etc. For these funds banks provide the interest to the customer in lieu of the money deposited by them. FIs also arrange the funds by way of borrowing to meet their commitments.[ Long term borrowing and Short term borrowing]

Lets take an example ABC bank has total liability of Rs 100 cr , the average rate of interest offered by the bank against these deposits is say 7.5%.
So the cost of funds is 100 Cr X 7.5%=7.5 Cr



1.b The  Return on net worth
Component of Tier 1 capital is 8% of RWA [ Risk Weighted Asset ] as per the RBI guidelines this should be included for the Marginal cost of funds. Probably in future when capital conservation buffer will be implemented as part of Basel III, then this will be increased to 10.5%. As per the Basel guidelines banks have to make provision as per their risk appetite.

Marginal cost of funds = 92% x Marginal cost of borrowings + 8% x Return on net worth 

Negative Carry on CRR [ Eureka moment ]

Why this component has been included for the MCLR ? Earlier the rate cuts offered by the central bank have not been transferred by the FIs smoothly. With CRR in picture whenever there will be an increase or decrease in repo rate it will be passed to the consumer directly.

CRR : cash reserve ratio it is the amount of money need to be deposited by the FIs with RBI, it fetches them a woofing amount of return and the return amount is a big Zero “0 “.

For the calculation of Negative carry RBI has prescribed below formula

Required CRR x (marginal cost) / (1- CRR)

So negative factor : CRR/(1-CRR) - simple mathematics tells that this will always be greater than CRR

CRR    : 4% :  [0.04/(1-0.04)] = 0.0416  
SLR     : 21.25% : [0.2125/(1-.2425)] = 0.2698  [ Maximum CRR ]
So negative factor will always multiply the marginal cost by multiplier which is greater than CRR.

Operating cost

The cost associated with providing the loan product including cost of raising the funds.
This cost includes all the expenses incurred while delivering the loan product.

Training of Staff
Research
Modeling [ Different scoring models]
Appraisal cost [ this may include salary expenses towards staff ]
Promotions and advertisements
Pre paid expense : Tie up arrangement expense

Tenor Premium

Based on different tenor of loans , different premium will be applied to the loans  irrespective of the type of loan.

Mr. Superman was still doubtful regarding the success of MCLR so again asked his guruji Mr. Nobody how this will help the banks to make profit?


Mr Nobody

Lets take an example Mr RBI has very successful brand 27 players [ PSU] approached him for franchise. Then Mr RBI being a boss came up with long list of terms conditions to which these 27 gentlemen merely agreed. However they dint know that they are in the risk business.

Mr RBI came up with an innovative idea of based rate way back in July 2010, which he has gain modified to MCLR in order to serve his customer in a better way at his franchise.

Every year RBI collects a franchise fee from 27 players it has been fixed at Rs 100/year. Now yearly profit of the 27 players stands at Rs 500/year each. Now in order to serve his customers better Mr. RBI came up with an idea of X factor that franchise's should only charge [10-X]% instead of 10%  to the customer.

Lets take a break even analysis of one of the franchises’s   X= 0.50
Description
Cost [ Rs]
Rent
20/month = 240/year
Staff expenses
30/month = 360/year
Advertisement
10/month = 120/year
Maintenance
5/month =  60/year
Franchise fee
          100/year
Total
880/year       


In order to make a profit of Rs 500 , the franchise has to do a business of Rs 1380/year. Profit is directly proportional to the interest that stands at 10%.
.
Illustration :
Business                                              : 1380
ROI                                        : 10%
Capital employed                    : 1380/.10= 13800


This ROI has been reduced by 0.50%
Business                                              : 1380
ROI                                        : 9.5%
Capital employed                    : 1380/.095= 14527


So in order to maintain the same profit level the franchise has to employ more funds and the cost these funds will again reduce the profitability.

Suppose the excess fund of Rs 727 has been borrowed by franchise from Mr RBI at 6.50% [ repo rate ] , the cost of funds will 47.25/year . Again this reduce the profitability by Rs 47.25.


Description
Cost [ Rs]
Profit
500
Funds required
727
Rate of interest
6.5%
Time period
1 year
Interest to be paid
47.25
Net profit
452.75


Here after doing all this mumbo jumbo the franchise is unable to reach the profit made last year. The same thing is about to happen with this MCLR  to our banking industry.The new base rate is a actually a burden on the Indian banking industry . The banks/FIs should be independent from RBI as far as the policy related to interest is concerned. Customer centric policies are good but if bank will not be there then how will we be bale to cater the customer.

What is the gist of this all? 
In simple layman terms, it means that the MCLR system of charging rate of interest will be a doom for our banking industry since the banks should be only lucky enough to generate operating profit using such a thin profit margin running into 0.XXX percentage points.  Which again means that the dividend being paid to shareholders as well as the retained earnings and surplus funds generated by the banks during its erstwhile days are going to be under heavy stress.  The bottom line advise by Ethmos - Don't go for banking sector stocks in the share market until some clarity emerges on the situation.



Happy Ethmos to All