Sunday, 7 June 2015

Revamping the banking industry in India - Mergers are the way forward - An Ethmotican Analysis

The State Bank Group family
We are publishing this article in response to some articles, particularly the one that appeared on Firstpost (click here for the same) which are advocating the independence of associate banks from the State Bank Group and are actually advocating creation of more banks citing various reasons, some with logic and some totally without any sense.


Hence, we at Ethmos consider it our duty to bring the complete picture before the public and all the stakeholders regarding the implications of merger as well as de-linking of associate banks from the State Bank Group.

First of all, let us make our stand very clear.  Ethmos is totally pro-merger and totally supports the stand of the government that fewer banks will be better able to survive in the evolving economies of today and hence, we in Bharat should have only 4-5 large banks that will cater specifically to each segment of the economy - i.e. one bank for general public like for savings, personal loans, housing loans, car loans, etc. (we will call it the Public Bank of Bharat), second for the business class for services of current accounts, business loans, export-import transactions, etc. (we will call it the Business Bank of Bharat), third exclusively for the agriculture sector (Agricultural Bank of Bharat), and another bank for all other miscellaneous segments of the economy, which will also act as the treasury for other banks.

Now that we have made our stand crystal clear, let us show you the logic behind this.
Benefits to the banking system, government, and the economy in general:
1.  Any simple banker will tell you one fact for sure - a defaulter in his bank is the biggest depositor in some other bank - and the poor banker despite having complete knowledge of this fact can do nothing against him to recover the public money other than filing a civil suit which will drag for centuries and eras together to get the verdict by which time the fourth generation of both the banker and the defaulter would be fighting the cases in the courts.  If we have fewer banks, then the public is not spoilt for choice where to keep their monies and they have no option but to deposit it in one of the four banks in the country which will make it very difficult for him to evade his repayment obligations.  This will drastically reduce the default percentage and hence reduce the non-performing assets of the banks, resulting in higher profits due to lesser provisioning requirements (because for every Re. 1/- turning into a non-performing asset, i.e. if a Re. 1/- loan is not repaid by the borrower, then the bank has to keep Re. 0.25/- out of its profits as a reserve to prevent banking crisis and payment to the depositors.  This provisioning amount increases year on year if the overdue money is not recovered and after the fourth year, if the loan still remains overdue, the bank has to keep 100% provision, i.e. Re. 1/- provision for every Re. 1/- not repaid by the borrower).  Hence, the merger will reduce the defaults in the banking industry and help in cleaning up the system in a big way.
2.  Recently our RBI has introduced the concept of bank account number portability in Bharat and the banks are gearing up for the same by linking all multiple accounts of a single customer (person with the same PAN number or voting card number).  This job will get much much easier and simpler after merger of all the banks of various hues and colors in our country.
3.  Asset and resources management of the banks will become more efficient and streamlined once merger is effected because then there will not be branches of 10 different banks lined up in the same locality paying rent, electricity, and all other expenses just to get the banking business from a common set of population in a geographic area.
4.  The services offered by all the public sector banks are more or less the same like deposits, loans, money transfers, etc.; just the cost of the service differs from bank to bank depending on the bank's requirement and market conditions.  Once all banks are merged into one, there will be uniformity of rates and the same will be controlled by the RBI depending on domestic and international economic conditions rather than profit considerations.
5.  Branch network will be utilized in a much efficient and better manner with the government getting a clear picture regarding the "overbanked", "banked", and the "underbanked" areas and taking corrective measures.  For example, majority of the banks center their branches around metros and bigger cities while many of the tier III cities, semiurban, and rural areas are either ignored or just banked with multiple banks in the single geographical area, which is not of much use for either the banks or the public over there.  This anomaly is a huge strain on national resources and will be corrected after the merger of the banks.
6.  No more black money worries since it will become much easier and cheaper to maintain the internet banking and mobile banking platforms and slowly and systematically, physical cash can be eradicated from the economic system since physical cash is the base on which the mountain of black money economy stands.
7.  The merger will result in huge cost reduction for the economy as a whole because different banks will not be issuing multiple cheque books, ATM cards, credit cards, etc. to the same customer.  To print one cheque book of say 20 pages costs around Rs. 100/-.  Suppose if a customer X is having accounts in say 5 banks as of now, then he will taking at least 20 cheques from each bank and that too for just transferring the money from one bank to other.  (Just calculate the physical and environmental cost of printing these cheque books that could have been easily avoided).  After the merger, this requirement and the cost associated with it will completely vanish.

Benefits to the public
1.  No need to maintain multiple accounts in a multitude of banks for the general public.
2.  One stop shop for all banking requirements.  Instant credit of cheques unless one is giving cheque from one bank to other for clearing - majority of the clearing transactions will be converted to simple transfer transactions.  This will decrease the huge load on the army of clearing houses maintained across the country as well as the RBI headquarters which has to deal with RTGS and NEFT transactions.
3.  More and better uniformity in systems and procedures - presently, a person declined a loan in one bank, takes it from the other bank.  Money will become a precious commodity and getting the same will require one to prove his/her worth or mettle.  We believe that this will surely curb the menace of inflation in the country.
4.  Better branch network availability, because after the merger, the branches will be distributed as per the population requirements rather than "business requirements of individual banks."  Presently, all banks are vying to get a smaller or bigger portion of the same pie - after merger, there will be no pie at all - instead, the banks will become the pie.

So, finally we would like to conclude our views with the advise to our government to follow this model, which is an international best practice followed by all the major economies in the world including US, China, Russia, etc. and the long-term benefits will far outweigh the short-term problems enumerated in the numerous articles advocating delinking and creation of more banks.  Furthermore, the strike by the unions seems more like an attempt to save their own power-centers at different banks rather than any improvement in the banking industry as a whole.

Your comments and suggestions are most welcome.


Happy Ethmos to all!

Wednesday, 3 June 2015

A tale of two countries - India Vs. Estonia

Giant Bharat - roaring economy rather than emerging economy Vs. the small Estonia


Readers might be thinking why out of nowhere we have come up and started discussing about a small country known as Estonia. This country is also know as the Baltic tiger.  Here we want the citizens of Bharat to learn a lesson or two from the tiger itself.

But before this critical analysis we would like to thank you for your support .


Me: Mentor, why have you woken me up in the middle of the night to discuss about Estonia?

Superman : You fool!  Learn from the past; those who don't know history should not condemn it.

Me: My mistake, Mr. Superman Sir.  I will come up with the analysis on Estonia.

Superman : Good luck old man!
  
Estonia is a country situated in the Baltic region of northern Europe with its capital city Tallinn. Estonia is governed by the democratic parliamentary republic form of government.  The official name of Estonia is Republic of Estonia. It is divided into 15 different areas with Tallinn as its capital.

Estonia is one of the least populous country in European zone. It is part of Schengen area. Its currency is Euro.  Post soviet disintegration, country has resurrected like phoenix. They have the economy of $23.11 billion and per capita income is also high at $ 17,561 (against $1,570 of India)

The country is enjoying a rank of 33 on HDI (human development index).  It is having quite low level of govt debt, which the country is using as a leverage for the development. They are enjoying the recognition of United Nations as well as world community for their remarkable growth.

It was really difficult for Estonia to maintain alliances post disintegration.  They had a mammoth task of development of the country.

Our Ethmotican analysis
The main reason for the growth of Estonia is that they heavily invested in the areas of information and technology and education in the mid 1990s. They started the programme Tiigrihüpe  (Estonian for Tiger Leap) for introduction of internet in schools and other educational institutions. This led to the access of internet to common people. Now government relies on this infrastructure for e-governance.

The advancement in the sector led to the development in the form of paperless banking and hassle-free loan sanctions.  As for submitting any document to the government departments, citizens have the required IT infrastructure and the same is done online (thus saving huge amount on paper costs and not to mention, the environmental advantages).  The development does not come cheap.  During 2007, Estonia was facing the issue of cyber terrorism but country fought against it bravely.  As per the statistics nearly 90% of the banking transactions in Estonia are wired as is the submission of the documents to the concerned ministries. Citizens submit their documents at the central database which will be accessed by the different government departments. This also helps the government in maintaining the central repository for the whole country. This is required for the implementation of the government-backed schemes at the grass root level.  Unlike in India, where a citizen has to taken multiple IDs like voting card, PAN card, passport, PRAN (pension regulatory account number) and the next-gen Aadhar card.

This is evident from the fact that the country of this stature is able to achieve wonders with implementation of  IT in every sector.

The issue of black money and excess money in the economy can be handled by the central bank with mere strokes of keyboards.


The development at the e-governance led to the inclusion of Estonia as the developed economy.  Estonia gained the passage of European Union easily.

Ethmotican analysis of growth

Hassle-free transactions 

Less redtapism among government departments

Data for analysis of implementation of government-backed scheme

Central bank is able to fight the menace of black money because of large number of wired transactions

More transparency for better governance.

The hassle-free credit sanctions lead to the growth of all the sectors

Indian context
India is a large country.  We don't have the level of the IT infrastructure that is being enjoyed by Estonia. but we are still the IT gaint of the world (or as we make the world believe!). We still have nearly 30-35 cities which are fully equipped with the required infrastructure. We will take an example of Delhi. If the Government of Delhi insists on e-submission of all kinds of documents, be it Aadhar card or a pass of DTC, then people will have to follow.

We will call these areas as "marked areas."  They should be out of control of the states even though the revenue generated will go to the state corpus but e-governance implementation will be under the control of the Centre.

Every citizen of the area will be digitized.  Even a penny earned by him/her should be under the governments radar.

How to implement?
Start with digitization of citizens, use existing infrastructure of Aadhar, NPR (National Population Register), and election commission.

Start non e-transaction taxes . If a customer deals with more than the stipulated number of transactions directly through the banking system then put a flat banking transaction tax on the amount.  This will encourage people to start using existing internet banking infrastructure.

For companies, make it mandatory as a part of ISO certification.
For individuals make it mandatory for issuance of passport.

The government departments will also be under this ambit as these departments have been enjoying full access to the banking system.  These departments have been issuing the account payee cheques to various citizens every now and then.  Why don't they use the internet banking facility and this will also solve the issue of the agency clearing and a hell lot of time and expensive stationery. Income-tax, commercial tax, and sales tax departments can be kept out of the ambit since they DO have to deal with the banking system on a day-to-day basis but local hospitals, courts, revenue office, etc. should be mandatorily made to use the IT banking systems.

We have to geographically demarcate the areas before implementation of this functionality.

Takeaway benefits of this implementation:
Population
The migration from villages to the metro cities will be checked. For migration to the major cities a person should be digitized and his/her ID is to be transferred to the metro city. He has to use this ID to book tickets of bus or railways and the ID will be transferred only if the person is having required skill and he/she is having an offer letter from a company.  This will be more like a work permit.

Rationale:
The existing infrastructure of the cities are not sufficient for the number of citizens staying in the cities. This will help the local government to plan accordingly and the migration will be checked.  This will also help in generation of skilled workforce who wants to work in these cities.  Moreover, the citizen will not be a burden on the government as he/she will be earning his/her own bread.  If large number of people migrate from one area then it will put pressure on the local government to start facilities and infrastructure at the place which will act as a stimulus for the growth.

Economy
The creation of different business centres boost different sectors. As the red-tapism will be less, the state governments will compete with each other for growth of various sectors. This will lead to creation of large number of jobs.

Rationale
As the pressure at the state will be intense because of migration, states will have to come up with various offers for industry majors to open the industry in their state. Since credit facilities will be easily available, this will increase the confidence of business community. This will also lead to overall development of the state and Bhartiya economy.

Revenue
As every citizen is digitized, a penny earned by him/her will be under the radar.  All the transactions will be online which will eradicate the menace of black money from the system.

Rationale & benefits
Curbing of black money, higher number of jobs, higher purchasing power and large number of business centres. This will increase the revenue for the government.


We at ETHMOS believe that implementation will be difficult but it is not impossible.

When going gets tough, the tough gets going.


Happy ETHMOS